Thursday Night NFL Pick: Week 15

Here’s a quick pick in advance of tonight’s completely uninteresting matchup between the Jaguars and Falcons. As always, this pick is done in conjunction with my friend Ryan, who writes a phenomenal sports blog.

Jaguars @ Falcons (-11.5)

Ryan: The Jaguars showed some feistiness last week, destroying the perhaps-quitting-on-their-coach Buccaneers. Still, though, that performance doesn’t make it any easier to pick Blaine Gabbert on the road in a hostile environment.

I don’t think that the Falcons are really all that good but they don’t really have to be to win this game. That said, I’m wary of the backdoor cover/letdown game potential for this one. Falcons win but Jaguars cover.

Asif: The Jaguars are actually better than most people give them credit for thanks largely entirely to very good defense. They were legitimately impressive against the Buccaneers. On the other hand, Blaine Gabbert has been the single worst QB in the NFL (worse than Curtis Painter!) this year, according to DVOA and anyone who has had the misfortune of watching him play.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are in great position to snag a wild card spot and on paper they should be a juggernaut, yet they continue to be less than inspiring. Matt Ryan has certainly held up his end of the bargain and Julio Jones has been a gamebreaker when healthy, but Roddy White has been inconsistent, and Michael Turner is having his least productive year in a Falcons uniform. On the defensive side of the ball the Falcons have been much better, Atlanta has arguably the best cornerback tandem in the NFL in Dunta Robinson and Morgan Grimes and John Abraham remains a threat in the pass rush. I personally think the Falcons are a team on the verge of breaking out, especially if they can get both White and Jones working at the same time. Falcons cover.

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Posted on December 15, 2011, in NFL, Weekly Picks and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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